Official New Zealand Government forecasts are for Australian
visitor arrivals to reach 1.24 million in 2012 (source: New Zealand
Tourism Forecasts 2010-2016). One of the drivers of expected growth
is New Zealand's gradual transition from a destination that
Australians would like to visit someday to one they intend to visit
soon. Another driver is the high rate of repeat visitation: three
quarters of Australian visitors have been to New Zealand
before.
Summer is the peak season for Australian visitors, but marketing
by Tourism New Zealand and other industry players has helped make
New Zealand a popular year-round destination. Winter has seen
growth in the popularity and accessibility of ski tourism for
Australian visitors.
New Zealand competes closely with the UK, US, Europe, and
Indonesia in the Australian market, as well as with domestic
Australian destinations such as Queensland and Western Australia,
but remains the number one outbound destination.
Tourism New Zealand runs a range of campaign activities in
Australia, including television advertising, online marketing, and
public relations. It also works closely with regions, airlines,
operators, and travel sellers to promote New Zealand.
Australians are confident researching and booking New Zealand
holidays online (see
research channels) and Tourism New Zealand campaign activity in
this market makes the most of digital media channels.
Australia continues to be New Zealand's most important market in
terms of visitor numbers, and Tourism New Zealand will be
maintaining levels of investment in Australia. It will seek to
drive visitor numbers by working more closely with trade, airline
and RTO partners to develop the market.
New Zealand now has the highest consideration and preference as
a holiday destination in Australia. It is perceived to be a
destination where you can explore and discover unique places and
experiences. Combined with competitive trans-Tasman airfares and a
favourable exchange rate, New Zealand is in a good position to
maintain visitor numbers this year.
Economy
Key Indicators
The Australian economy is in a strong position, with above-trend
GDP growth forecast over the next two years. Employment has grown
strongly with over 300,000 jobs created in 2011, with unemployment
falling to around five per cent. Beyond the short term impact of
the natural disasters such as Queensland foods in early 2011,
Australia's GDP growth is forecast to strengthen to four per cent
in 2011/12, and 3.75 per cent in 2012/13, led by record levels of
investment in the resources sector.
Sources:
www.budget.gov.au (GDP
Growth)
www.xe.com (Exchange
rates)
| Exchange Rate vs NZD |
AUD1 = NZD1.28 (9 May 12) |
| Expected GDP Growth |
+3.0% for 2012-13
+3.25% for 2013-14
|
For more detailed information on the Australian economy
read the economic analysis in New Zealand Trade and Enterprise's Australia country brief.
Outbound Travel
Australians continue to travel overseas in record numbers. The
sustained and increasing value of the Australian dollar; growing
international air capacity (particularly from low cost carriers in
the Asia-Pacific region), and the robust Australian economy are
expected to continue to provide favourable conditions for outbound
travel in the near term.
Based on this outlook, outbound departures in 2012 are expected
to grow between 4.7 per cent and 5.8 per cent to reach 8.3 million
or more. Higher than predicted oil prices pose a downside risk to
this forecast, but there is also upside potential if the Australian
dollar trades above the average rates assumed in the forecasts over
this period (source: Australia Tourism Forecasting Committee, TRA
2011).
According to Tourism New Zealand research, its target
market in Australia is looking for a holiday destination where they
can have fun, learn and experience new things, and feel relaxed,
welcome, safe and comfortable.
Those aged over 40 are more likely to value feeling safe and
welcome, and less likely to prioritise reducing stress and escaping
everyday life; those under 40 are more likely to value personal
challenge and getting an adrenalin rush.
Airlines update
Jetstar's Melbourne to Auckland service, and up to four
Melbourne to Christchurch flights per week were rescheduled to
overnight flights in late March. The change allows Jetstar to use
the aircraft for domestic flights in New Zealand during the day,
before flying back to Australia in the evening and returning to New
Zealand overnight. The fares have very cheap lead-in prices
but departing Melbourne at close to midnight and arriving in
Christchurch or Auckland at 5am may not prove a compelling
proposition for consumers.
Cruise
The cruise industry is resilient and emerged strongly from
Australia's recession. Mass market cruise is growing faster than
other travel sectors, and according to market reports there is no
foreseeable limit to industry growth, with 623,294 Australians
taking cruises in 2011, up 34 per cent on 2010.
Australia has surpassed North America as the main source of
cruise passengers to New Zealand in recent years, with Australian
bookings for the 2011/12 season up 80 per cent to 84,018
passengers.
Just under 90 per cent of all Australia cruise passengers to New
Zealand are not recorded as official International Visitor Arrivals
(IVA). Cruise itineraries are primarily sold as sailing from Sydney
and returning to Sydney, and as passengers embark and disembark in
Australia, they are seen as transit passengers in New Zealand.
While passengers actually visit up to eight ports as the ships
circumnavigate New Zealand, their visit is not counted as a holiday
arrival unless they fly into, or out of, New Zealand.
The potential of the Australian outbound cruise market for the
New Zealand tourism industry is huge, even though New Zealand at
present only captures 13 per cent of Australia's cruise market. If
Australia meets its target of 1 million outbound passengers per
year by 2020, New Zealand's current market share would equate to
130,000 passengers.
Competitor Activity
Outbound travel by Australian residents was up 10 per cent
to 7.8 million in 2011. New Zealand remains the top destination for
Australians, but it is losing market share at the expense of
Indonesia (Bali), and the United States, along with growth in the
popularity of cruise travel. The superiority of the Australian
currency against the United States dollar; cheap flights to Bali,
and an increase in domestic tourism promotion in Australia means
New Zealand faces more competition than ever for Australia
visitors.