Official New Zealand Government forecasts are for Australian
visitor arrivals to reach 1.64 million in 2018 (source: NZIER
Tourism forecasts 2012-18). One of the quoted drivers from
NZIER is the opportunity to leverage growing middle class incomes
There has been a significant shift in where Australian holiday
arrivals are entering New Zealand. Christchurch airport's Australia
holiday arrivals have almost been halved by growth in Queenstown
and Auckland arrivals in the past four years.
As the proportion of first time holiday visitors to New Zealand
declines, the amount of time Australian holiday visitors are
staying here declines. The average length of stay of Australian
holiday visitors has declined from two weeks in 2000 to 10.9
days in 2012.
Australian holiday visitors flying directly into Queenstown tend
to stay for shorter periods of time than the norm (9.1
days). A separate analysis shows these tourists typically
spend 20% more per person than the average Australian holiday
New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria account for the largest
numbers of Australia arrivals into New Zealand but Western
Australia has shown the highest growth with increased airline
capacity from Perth to Auckland.
Summer has the highest peak for Australian holiday visitors, but
marketing by Tourism New Zealand and other industry players has
helped make New Zealand a popular year-round destination. Winter
has seen sustained growth in the popularity and accessibility of
ski tourism for Australian visitors.
New Zealand competes closely with the US and Indonesia in the
Australian market, as well as with domestic Australian destinations
such as Queensland and Western Australia, but New Zealand remains
the number one outbound destination for Australians.
Tourism New Zealand runs a range of campaign activities in
Australia year round, including television advertising, online
marketing, and public relations. It also works closely with
regional tourism organisations, airlines, operators, and travel
sellers to promote New Zealand and develop the market.
Australians are confident researching and booking New Zealand
holidays online (see research channels) and
Tourism New Zealand campaign activity in this market makes the most
of digital media channels.
New Zealand has the highest consideration and preference as a
holiday destination in Australia. It is perceived to be a
destination where you can explore and discover unique places and
experiences. Combined with competitive trans-Tasman airfares and a
favourable exchange rate, New Zealand is in a good position to
maintain visitor numbers this year.
Australia continues to be New Zealand's most important market in
terms of visitor numbers, and Tourism New Zealand will be
maintaining levels of investment in Australia.
Against a challenging global backdrop, the fundamentals of the
Australian economy remain strong and the outlook remains positive.
Economic activity is expected to grow at around its trend rate over
the next two years, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain low
and inflation is expected to be well contained.
Australia's economic growth prospects are favourable, with real
GDP forecast to grow three per cent in both 2012/13 and
2013/14, underpinned by growth in new business investment, non
rural commodity exports and household consumption.
|Exchange Rate vs NZD
||AUD1 = NZD1.28 (9 May 12)
|Expected GDP Growth
||+3.0% for 2012/13
+3.25% for 2013/14
For more detailed information on the Australian economy
read the economic analysis in New Zealand Trade and Enterprise's Australia country brief.
Total outbound departures are forecast to continue to record
solid growth in future years.
While the forecast growth rate of outbound departures has been
revised up to 6.9 per cent
and 5.1 per cent for 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively - from the
6.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent in each year - it does represent a
slowing in growth.
Driving the forecasts are the assumed solid consumer economy,
sustained high value of the
Australian dollar and continued expansion in aviation capacity to
many key leisure outbound markets. In the longer term, the annual
average growth for outbound resident departures is now expected to
be 3.7 per cent with departures reaching 11.6 million by 2021/22
(source: Australia Tourism Forecasting Committee, TRA 2012 Issue
According to Tourism New Zealand research, its target market in
Australia is looking for a holiday destination where they can have
fun, learn and experience new things, and feel relaxed, welcome,
safe and comfortable.
Those aged over 40 are more likely to value feeling safe and
welcome, and less likely to prioritise reducing stress and escaping
everyday life; those under 40 are more likely to value personal
challenge and getting an adrenalin rush.
The proposed alliance between Qantas Group and Emirates will
take effect from March 2013 - subject to ACCC approval. If
approved, this agreement will result in two alliances that supply
almost all trans-Tasman travel.
Qantas (QF), Emirates (EK) and Jetstar (JQ) will make up 36.5
per cent of the market and Air NZ/Virgin Australia will represent
60 per cent. This will essentially create a duopoly on trans-Tasman
travel. It will also result in the probability of Qantas flying
from Adelaide and Perth to Auckland which would be a potential
boost for travel to New Zealand. Air New Zealand has been operating
as a monopoly on those routes.
The cruise industry is resilient and emerged strongly from
Australia's recession. Mass market cruise is growing faster than
other travel sectors, and according to market reports there is no
foreseeable limit to industry growth. Australia has surpassed North
America as the main source of cruise passengers to New Zealand in
recent years, with Australian bookings for the 2012/13 season
forecast at 95,000 passengers.
Just under 90 per cent of all Australia cruise passengers to New
Zealand are not recorded as official International Visitor Arrivals
(IVA). Cruise itineraries are primarily sold as sailing from
Australia and returning to Australia. As passengers
embark and disembark in Australia, they are seen as transit
passengers in New Zealand. While passengers actually visit up to
eight ports as the ships circumnavigate New Zealand, their visit is
not counted as a holiday arrival unless they fly into, or out of,
The potential of the Australian outbound cruise market for the New
Zealand tourism industry is huge, even though New Zealand at
present only captures 13 per cent of Australia's cruise market. If
Australia meets its target of 1 million outbound passengers per
year by 2020, New Zealand's current market share would equate to
There were more than eight million outbound resident
departures for the year, an increase of 8.0 per cent on the
New Zealand remains the top destination for Australians, but it is
losing market share at the expense of Indonesia (Bali), and the
United States, along with growth in the popularity of cruise
The superiority of the Australian currency against the United
States dollar, cheap flights to Bali, and an increase in domestic
tourism promotion in Australia means New Zealand faces more
competition than ever for Australia