The economic situation in Japan has brightened in the last six
months, and travel to New Zealand is expected to follow suit.
Concerns remain, however, about public debt and lagging
domestic consumption.
The more favourable economic outlook, combined with New
Zealand's recent high media profile in Japan and a favourable
exchange rate, should help visitor arrivals from this market return
to growth during 2010.
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Economy
Outbound Travel
Airline Update
Competitor Activity
Economy
Japan's export-based economy was heavily hit by the economic
downturn but the gloom is lifting. The country is now out of
recession with January to March forecast to mark the fourth
consecutive quarter of GDP growth.
Overall business sentiment is up. The Bank of Japan has recently
revised its GDP growth prediction for 2010 from 1.3 per cent to 1.8
per cent. Unemployment fell below 5 per cent in January and
February for the first time in a year but went back up to 5 per
cent in March.
Exports also achieved a 30-year high in January, with Japan's
worldwide exports at 90 per cent of pre-Lehman shock levels. The
Nikkei has been showing signs of strength and has crawled up over
the 11,000 yen mark. The Yen has stabilised against the New Zealand
Dollar and remains favourable compared to recent years.
However, economic concerns remain. Government spending has
played an important part in the rebound and this has contributed to
incredibly high public debt; although unlike many other countries
borrowing has been from within Japan, not from other nations.
Company profits were better than expected for the 2009 calendar
year, thanks to cost cuts as well as growing demand in China and
other emerging markets. Deflation continues to stall domestic
growth, with the consumer price index remaining negative however
the Bank of Japan predicts prices will stop falling by fiscal
2011.
Key Indicators
Sources:
www.economist.com (GDP Growth)
www.xe.com (Exchange rates)
| Exchange Rate vs NZD |
JPY66 = NZD1 (7 May 10) |
| Expected GDP Growth |
-5.3% for 2009
+1.9% for 2010
(Apr 10 est.) |
Outbound
Travel
After dropping back in 2009, outbound travel climbed 8.9 per
cent year-on-year in January, only to decrease again in February by
5.12 per cent.
This trend was reflected in visitor arrivals to New Zealand,
with visitor numbers from Japan increasing in January 2010 compared
with January 2009 (up 15.5 per cent) and February (up 0.9 per
cent), but falling back again in March and April.
Despite these fluctuations, the outlook is positive for travel
to New Zealand in 2010, with overall growth expected for the first
time in several years. New Zealand's profile received a boost
thanks to the Giant Rugby Ball's presence in Tokyo in
October/November last year, as well as strong international media
results and newspaper advertising activity. Combined with economic
recovery and a favourable exchange rate, this should help boost
interest in travel to New Zealand.
Feedback from travel wholesalers suggests numbers for school
group bookings for the coming New Zealand winter and spring will be
similar or slightly higher than two years ago.
Airline
Update
Air New Zealand capacity for the April to June period is up
almost 20 per cent on last year due to smaller aircraft flying
during this period. The airline will reduce capacity to the same
levels as 2009 over the winter period. All flights from Japan will
land in Auckland over winter.
Air New Zealand has indicated plans to boost charter operations
next summer following popularity of its four charters out of Nagoya
and Okinawa in January 2010.
In May 2010, Air New Zealand announced it would also increase
seat capacity out of Japan by around 7 per cent over the Northern
winter period (November 2010 - March 2011).
Since October 2009, Jetstar has been selling New Zealand via the
Gold Coast mainly to younger travellers.
A number of new airlines servicing the Middle East have entered
the market, with Emirates, Qatar, Etihad and Turkish Airlines all
planning to start flying out of Narita this year. Qantas will
increase seat capacity for six weeks from July on its Narita/Sydney
service, with the aim of attracting more group traffic.
Airlines are vying for new slots to be made available for
international flights at Tokyo's Haneda airport with the opening of
its fourth runway later this year. Unlike Narita, Haneda is closer
to the Tokyo city centre and will be operational 24-hours a
day.
Four months after filing for bankruptcy, Japan Airlines
announced in April it plans to stop flights on 15 international
routes, including Brisbane, Bali and numerous destinations in
Europe and China. Suspension of flights will take place
progressively from September 2010.
Competitor Activity
After a 22 per cent decrease in Japanese visitor arrivals to
Australia in 2009, there are now signs of a recovery, fuelled in
part by the school group sector. A large proportion of the Japan
Airlines (JAL) charters that previously travelled to New Zealand
are now going to Cairns. Eight 747 JAL charter flights to Cairns
are planned for school groups in Kyushu in 2010.
A large trade familiarisation visit recently organised by
Tourism Australia received wide media coverage in Japan. Activity
is also underway to attract visitors to the Sydney Marathon and
Australian Tennis Open.
The Canadian Tourism Commission is putting increased marketing
efforts into Japan, and hopes to boost Japanese arrivals by one
third in 2010 to 300,000.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is partnering with 15
Japanese travel companies to recruit 340 people from Tokyo, Osaka
and Fukuoka as part of a campaign called 'Amazing Thailand Value
Happy Campaign'. Participants' travel reports will provide content
on the TAT website.
Hawaii currently targets wedding and honeymoon, family and
active senior travellers from Japan. Hawaii plans to broaden is
strategy to target females around 40 years of age and the school
market, promoting the diversity of experiences Hawaii can offer and
ideas for anniversary trips.