Situation and Outlook

Last Updated on: 11 May 2010

The economy's return to stability has helped drive a swift recovery in outbound travel and New Zealand is seeing the benefits of this, with year-on-year growth in arrivals throughout the first quarter of 2010.

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Economy
Outbound Travel
Airline Update

Economy

South Korea's economic growth accelerated sharply in the first quarter of 2010 amid a rebound in manufacturing, exports and domestic demand. According to the Bank of Korea, the economy grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the previous year, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2002.

Foreign investment is flowing into Korea's stock market, reflecting investors' positive assessment of the market's recovery and fiscal soundness.

South Korea's economy is the third-largest in Asia. Its strong recovery from the global economic downturn has been boosted by record low interest rates and Government stimulus measures.

The Bank of Korea has forecast that the economy will expand this year at its fastest rate since 2006. The economic upturn is reflected in a rise in consumer confidence, which is boosting outbound travel.

Key Indicators

Sources:
www.economist.com (GDP Growth)
www.xe.com (Exchange rates)

Exchange Rate vs NZD KRW100 = NZD0.123 (11 May 10)
Expected GDP Growth +5.1% for 2010
+4.0% for 2011
(Apr 10 est.)

Outbound Travel

South Korea's travel industry began to show signs of recovery in December, with outbound travel returning to growth for the first time since May 2008. In December 2009, close to 889,000 Koreans travelled abroad, up 22 per cent on the previous year. Total outbound travel is expected to grow by 20 per cent in 2010.

The economic recovery, improved consumer confidence and the stable exchange rate helped visitor arrivals to New Zealand increase by 43.5 per cent in March 2010 compared with March 2009. This was the fourth consecutive month arrivals had increased.

While travel sellers in South Korea reported slower bookings for April, the indications are that growth in visitor arrivals will continue. One important factor restraining growth is a lack of airline seats, particularly with Korean Air adjusting its capacity for the shoulder season. The strength of the New Zealand Dollar against the Won could also pose a threat to recovery in the coming months

Airline Update

After a six-month period free of surcharges, airlines reintroduced fuel surcharges on long-haul flights in September last year. Rates increased to USD82.00 for January and February, and rose again to USD100.00 during March and April.

Korean Air has decreased its number of flights to New Zealand to five per week during the April to July low season. It will return to daily flights for the winter peak season of July and August, and then revert to five times weekly from September.

Korean Air will increase the number of weekly flights from four to daily on its Incheon to San Francisco route from May to October. It has also increased Honolulu services during the September to October honeymoon season from daily, to ten services a week.

The airline has also announced a zero commission system for agents starting from January 2010. Agents are strongly resisting the decision.

Air New Zealand has been promoting free independent traveller (FIT) fares and new domestic add-on fares.