Situation and Outlook

Glimmers of economic recovery in Thailand are being overshadowed by political unrest. Travel to New Zealand is continuing to show strength so far this year, but travel seller partners are cautious about the outlook for coming months, with the political situation encouraging Thais to restrain spending on travel and stay closer to home.

Economy

Political unrest in Thailand starting in mid March 2010 has started to ease, following announcements by Government that it would begin to look at solutions to the current political conflicts.

The 'roadmap', which has been well received by the private sector, is aimed at dissolving Parliament in late September and holding a national election in mid November 2010.  However, protests continue at the time of writing (11 May), as activities continue to negotiate amnesty with the Government.

Although the economic situation has begun to improve, civil unrest intensified in April threatening further economic recovery. The Government had expected GDP to rise to 4.5 per cent in 2010, however that is dependent on a resolution of political conflict.

Thailand's inbound tourism industry has been severely hit by the political protests. Unemployment has increased and consumer confidence is down as a result of the prolonged unrest.

Key Indicators

Sources:
www.economist.com (GDP Growth)
www.reuters.com (Exchange rates)

Outbound Travel

Outbound travel from Thailand has taken a hit over the past year thanks to the global economic downturn, Influenza A H1N1 (Swine Flu) and Thai political unrest.

Despite the political unrest, travel sellers reported an improvement in outbound bookings, especially during March and April 2010. Iceland's volcanic eruption, which resulted in flight cancellations to and from Europe, saw benefits for New Zealand, with some groups deciding to change their travel destinations and head south to New Zealand.

New Zealand is still faring well for Free Independent Travel (FIT), as well as for incentive and technical travel groups. Incentive groups are reported to be requesting New Zealand pitch itineraries for travel in 2010.

Airline Update

Thai Airways now flies four 777-300 non-stop services per week between Bangkok and Auckland. This is expected to increase to four services per week from October 2010.

On 1 June 2010, Thai Airlines will resume direct services between Bangkok and Johannesburg with five weekly services, after suspending the services in January 2009.  The airline hopes to capture the traffic from football fans for the FIFA World Cup and is looking to partner with South African Airways on the route. Malaysian Airlines also launched additional flights from Bangkok to Johannesburg in late March in anticipation of the FIFA World Cup in June.

Emirates continues to fly daily Bangkok to Christchurch services via Sydney. There is still high demand from Thailand, but flights are mainly being filled by travellers from Europe.