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Market portfolio management overcomes short-term slowdown

Expected market volatility is reflected in the latest International visitor numbers released today. The results show a slow-down in visitor growth from some of our key visitor markets.

“Tourism New Zealand takes a market portfolio strategy approach to market investment that allows for and supports market fluctuations like this.” says Stephen England- Hall, Tourism Chief Executive.

China, USA, India and Indonesia saw positive growth in holiday arrivals for the year ending June 2018, with +15.9%, +6.3%, +19.2% and +6.8% respectively, while holiday arrival growth slowed for the Japan (-0.3%), Germany (-2.6%), Australia (-1.8%) and UK (-5.9%) markets.

“While the mid- to long-term outlook remains strong for the growth in both the value and number of international visitors, a slow-down in the visitor economy growth rate is expected over the next 12 months. This is due to changes in travel patterns in some markets, airline capacity and route competition and the rollover from last year’s high-impact events like the Lions Tour,” says Tourism New Zealand Chief Executive, Stephen England-Hall.

“Tourism New Zealand’s portfolio strategy is designed to provide balance and cushioning when a market or markets are impacted by structural factors that flow through to New Zealand. Our portfolio approach attempts to offset some of that volatility in individual markets. Increasing future security and reducing sector risks from dominant markets is a key driver of our strategy to invest in emerging markets too.

“In the medium- to long-term, New Zealand’s visitor economy is forecast for positive growth across all markets, bringing total visitor numbers to 5.1 million visitors in 2024 and an additional $4 billion annually to the New Zealand economy. 

“The expected visitor economy growth brings incredible opportunity for our industry, for our regions, and the supporting sectors such as technology, finance and business.”

Japan, Germany and UK are forecast to see limited growth over the next year due to changes in air capacity, a slowdown in youth sector travel, increased tendency to travel domestically and consolidation of travel following one-off peaks, including the 2017 Lions Tour. Australia is anticipated to return to growth later in the cycle as increased competition and capacity comes on stream across the Tasman.

Positive growth is expected to continue from the China, USA and emerging markets. 

For more information on Tourism New Zealand’s target markets, visit www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats